Government plans to expand non-custodial sentencing across England and Wales have raised alarm among criminal justice experts.
Martin Jones, HM Chief Inspector of Probation, warned that increasing reliance on community sentences without urgent reform could endanger public safety. He described the current state of the Probation Service as overstretched and under-resourced.
The comments come ahead of Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s planned announcement of major reforms to sentencing. The changes follow an independent review led by former Conservative minister David Gauke.
The review encourages judges to reduce short prison terms and adopt community-based alternatives. These would include increased use of electronic tagging and probation supervision.
Jones urged immediate investment in the Probation Service before implementing such sweeping changes. He said more staff, better training, and fewer bureaucratic hurdles are essential to manage the growing caseload.
He warned that shifting offenders from prisons into communities carries significant risk. Unlike prisons, probation operates within society, so mistakes can have immediate and dangerous consequences.
Jones said, “Too few staff, with too little experience, managing too many cases” leaves gaps in public protection. He added that recent inspections show repeated failures in identifying and managing risk.
His remarks underline concerns that without adequate preparation, new policies will fall short. “Simply shifting demand from prison to probation is ineffective at best, dangerous at worst,” he cautioned.
Jones, who formerly led the Parole Board, stressed the importance of integrated systems. He called for improved collaboration between probation, police, and other agencies. He added that poor communication often results in missed opportunities to address reoffending.
The review is expected to recommend a new “earned release” model. Under this, prisoners could be freed after serving one-third of their sentence, provided they meet strict behaviour conditions.
Other proposals include extending suspended sentences to cover prison terms up to three years. Judges may also defer sentencing for up to 12 months, especially in cases involving addiction or pregnancy.
The government has already ordered tens of thousands of additional tags. These will be used to monitor offenders who serve sentences in the community rather than prison.
Jones concluded that only a well-funded, well-functioning probation system can manage this shift. Without urgent change, public trust in the justice system may be at serious risk.
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