16 and 17-year-olds could reshape UK elections in a major way after Labour’s decision to lower the voting age. However, experts warn the move might not benefit Labour as intended. Instead, Reform UK and Jeremy Corbyn’s new party could gain the most.
Last month, Labour announced plans to let 1.5 million younger teens vote in the next general election. This aligns UK-wide elections with Scotland and Wales, where 16 and 17-year-olds already vote. Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged young people to engage, but pollsters doubt Labour will reap the rewards.
Leading analysts believe 16 and 17-year-olds could reshape UK elections by supporting alternative parties. Conservative peer Robert Hayward said younger voters often reject mainstream options. He expects Reform UK, the Greens, and Corbyn’s party to benefit most.
Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus agreed, calling Labour’s strategy risky. He noted younger voters often favor anti-establishment choices. Meanwhile, Louis O’Geran of More in Common UK highlighted a gender divide. Young men lean toward Labour and Reform, while young women prefer the Greens.
The distribution of young voters is fairly even across the UK. However, some areas will see stronger effects. Retirement-heavy regions like the south coast have fewer young voters. In contrast, urban areas with tight races could see 16 and 17-year-olds reshape UK elections by tipping close contests.
O’Geran pointed to Gaza as a key issue for young voters. In seats where Labour faces independent challengers, their votes could decide outcomes. Seven constituencies have Labour majorities smaller than their teen voter populations.
Hayward predicted two major trends: split voting and low turnout. Young voters often scatter support across multiple parties. Additionally, turnout among teens may stay low, mirroring trends seen in the 2024 election.
Despite Labour’s hopes, experts say younger voters may not rally behind them. Instead, Reform UK and Corbyn’s party could emerge as winners. With the next election years away, political shifts among teens remain unpredictable.
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