The UK and France are finalizing a migrant returns deal, but critics warn it will fail unless Channel crossings drop significantly. Under the agreement, France would take back some small boat migrants while the UK accepts asylum seekers with valid claims.
The migrant returns deal follows talks between UK officials and French President Emmanuel Macron. Dubbed a “one-in, one-out” system, it would see around 50 migrants weekly returned to France. In exchange, the UK would process an equal number of pre-approved asylum cases from France.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the plan a “new deterrent” to disrupt smuggling gangs. However, skeptics argue the numbers are too small to make an impact. Currently, about 1,000 migrants cross the Channel daily far exceeding the proposed returns.
The Conservatives claim the migrant returns deal is too weak, covering just 5% of current arrivals. They contrast it with their stalled Rwanda deportation scheme, which aimed for a stronger deterrent effect. Labour scrapped the Rwanda plan after taking office, calling it costly and ineffective.
French officials have previously resisted taking back migrants, making this a diplomatic shift. Yet without rapid scaling, critics say the deal will do little to stop crossings.
Success hinges on whether the migrant returns deal actually reduces small boat attempts. If crossings stay high, the policy risks being labeled a failure. Supporters argue it’s a starting point, while opponents demand tougher measures.
The pilot phase begins soon, but long-term impact remains uncertain. With both governments under pressure, all eyes will be on Channel arrival numbers in the coming months.
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