The London Pulse News — Labour could lose dozens of seats to Reform UK across England and Wales as a growing number of voters turn away from mainstream parties, according to a groundbreaking analysis obtained by The London Pulse News. The study highlights a seismic shift in British politics, with Reform UK poised to capitalise on widespread disillusionment with both Labour and the Conservatives.
Senior Labour figures are now privately acknowledging a “change of era,” as more moderate voters flock to Nigel Farage’s party. The research, conducted by polling company Focaldata, reveals that Reform UK would secure 76 seats if an election were held today—60 of which would come directly from Labour. These include traditional “red wall” constituencies, as well as seats in Wales and southern England.
The analysis also suggests that even a modest further swing toward Reform UK could see the party gain an additional 76 Labour-held seats. Labour’s narrow leads in many constituencies make it particularly vulnerable to shifts in voter turnout or surges in Reform’s support.
Commissioned by the campaign group Hope Not Hate, the study is based on a mega-poll of nearly 18,000 voters. It paints a picture of an electorate that is increasingly skeptical of the mainstream parties’ ability to deliver meaningful change. While many voters expressed support for a strong state and positive views on immigration, they voiced deep frustration with the political establishment.
A New Political Landscape
The findings underscore the growing threat Reform UK poses to Labour, particularly in areas with large white working-class populations. In these constituencies, Reform is attracting between 10% and 15% of voters who backed Labour in the last election. However, the party’s appeal is weaker in Labour’s more diverse metropolitan seats.
The poll suggests Britain is entering a new era of four-party politics, with 266 seats where the top two parties are separated by less than 6%, 60 three-way marginals, and one four-way marginal. Nick Lowles, chief executive of Hope Not Hate, warned that Labour must deliver on its promises to improve living standards and public services or risk further losses to Reform.
“The polling should be a wake-up call for everyone,” Lowles said. “Reform UK is emerging as a major political force in Britain. The idea that Reform hurts the Conservatives more than Labour is plainly nonsense. Our data shows that the vast majority of seats Reform would win today are from Labour.”
A Coalition of Discontent
Reform UK’s voter base is a diverse coalition, including newer, more moderate voters, “radical young men” inspired by figures like Elon Musk, and older Conservative and working-class voters opposed to immigration. Notably, while strong anti-immigration views dominated among Reform voters in the 2024 general election, newer supporters hold more diverse opinions, including positive attitudes toward immigration and multiculturalism.
“There is no single way to fight Reform,” Lowles added. “Different types of Reform voters require different approaches. At the same time, we need to hold Reform accountable for its increasingly contradictory positions. Farage is trying to present a more moderate image, but those around him hold hardline and extreme views.”
Labour’s Response
Labour insiders acknowledge the challenge, with one senior source describing the current political climate as a “change of era.”
“People are angrier, and there’s a lot more voter fluidity,” the source said. “The people driving this change aren’t the political elites—they’re ordinary people who want to see results. We’ve got to demonstrate that the government can make a difference in their lives.”
The party is also preparing to take a tougher stance on key issues, such as housebuilding, to show it is fighting for the public. “We’ve got to be clear about the choices we’re making and whose side we’re on,” the source added.
As Reform UK continues to gain traction, the political landscape in Britain is becoming increasingly fragmented. With Labour’s lead in many seats hanging by a thread, the coming months could determine whether the party can stem the tide of voter disillusionment—or whether Reform UK will solidify its position as a major force in British politics.
The London Pulse News will continue to monitor this evolving story and provide in-depth analysis of its implications for the future of UK politics.
