Labour is experiencing the sharpest decline in support among voters who feel financially insecure, according to a new report. The findings suggest that Keir Starmer should shift his focus to improving living standards, rather than engaging in culture wars or focusing heavily on immigration issues.
While some Labour backbench MPs have urged Starmer to take a stronger stance on migration and crime due to growing concerns over the rise of Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist party, a study by leading experts in voter behaviour reveals that economic insecurity is the primary factor behind Labour’s loss of support.
The analysis, conducted by Professors Jane Green and Geoffrey Evans from the University of Oxford and commissioned by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, shows that people who feel financially insecure are increasingly turning away from Labour. The study found that 40% of voters who supported Starmer in the 2024 general election have since shifted their allegiance. Nearly half (46%) of these voters were economically insecure, compared to just 31% of those who remained more financially stable.
Prof. Green, director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre, explained that voters facing financial insecurity are searching for political alternatives because they do not see an improvement in their economic situation or prospects for their children. According to her, discussions about culture wars and immigration fail to address the real struggles these voters face.
She added, “A party that focuses on economic security – bringing down costs and helping people build their savings – is likely to resonate with voters and strengthen its electoral prospects. Without this focus, political volatility and further fragmentation are likely.”
Concerns about the growing support for Reform UK have prompted government insiders to worry about the potential impact on Labour’s chances, particularly after a recent poll indicated the party had been surpassed by Reform. MPs associated with the “Blue Labour” movement have also been pushing for a tougher stance on migration to prevent Labour from losing its working-class voter base.
The new study pointed to Labour’s decisions, such as withdrawing the winter fuel allowance and its pessimistic messaging about the UK’s economic future, as contributing to a perception among economically insecure voters that the party was not addressing their concerns. This group was found to be twice as likely (41%) to feel that Labour was handling household economic security poorly, compared to 20% of those in more comfortable financial situations.
The report highlighted that 35% of the UK electorate, or about 18.5 million potential voters, feel economically insecure. It also noted that people aged 35-39 were most likely to be part of this group and were more volatile in their political support.
Prof. Green concluded, “The fragility of people’s finances, especially in mid-life, mirrors the growing instability in the political landscape. With so many voters uncertain about their economic future, parties must urgently focus on providing economic confidence as they approach the next election.”
As Labour faces challenges in retaining voter loyalty, the study underscores the need for a stronger emphasis on policies that address economic security to stem the tide of disillusionment among financially insecure voters.
Stay tuned for more updates on how Labour adapts to these challenges.
