Professor Sir John Curtice, a leading elections analyst, has said that this year’s local elections in England are particularly difficult to predict due to the competitiveness of five political parties.
“Almost undoubtedly, what we’re going to discover on Friday, when most local council results come in, is an awful lot of councillors being elected on a very low share of the vote. We are talking about an election in which five political parties are serious competitors. Reform is polling at 25%, Labour at 24%, and the Conservatives at 22%. Yes, the Liberal Democrats are at 14% and the Greens at 9%, but they typically perform better in local elections than in general elections.”
Curtice noted that this environment will likely result in many councils ending up under no overall control.
When asked if five-party politics is now the “new norm” in the UK, Curtice replied:
“It certainly looks like our new norm at the moment.”
He pointed out that the last general election marked the first time in UK history where five political parties contested almost every seat. While Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats have long had national party structures, the Greens have expanded their reach nationally, and Reform UK is now solidifying its presence. Curtice highlighted that Reform has managed to field 1,640 candidates for these local elections, more than any other party, demonstrating their shift toward becoming a permanent political force.
Discussing Labour’s prospects, Curtice observed that “no previous newly-elected government has seen its support fall more heavily and more rapidly in the polls” than the current Labour government. However, he also reminded that the council seats up for election were last contested during a time of strong Conservative popularity under Boris Johnson in 2021 — a period he described as “psephological pre-history.”
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