A new study has found that areas receiving levelling-up funds were less likely to vote for Reform UK, suggesting that visible, quick impact projects may help reduce support for populist parties. The Social Market Foundation (SMF) analysed data from the recent general election and found a correlation between investment and lower-than-expected vote shares for Nigel Farage’s party.
While Reform UK performed well in areas with low numbers of university graduates, high crime rates, and shifting demographics particularly where the proportion of white residents has declined places that benefited from levelling-up funding showed a dip in support for the populist party, even when accounting for demographics.
Jamie Gollings, SMF’s research director, cautioned that correlation doesn’t confirm causation, but said the trend suggests targeted improvements like fixing high streets or potholes may help mainstream parties retain support. He noted this could be relevant for Labour, whose current infrastructure plans may not show results until far into the future.
The study also revealed that Reform UK underperformed in areas with strong local political traditions, such as Liverpool and parts of the south-west, and that local candidate profiles had a notable effect. For instance, Reform outperformed expectations in seats where high-profile figures like Farage or Lee Anderson stood, while strong Conservative candidates with Brexit credentials suppressed the Reform vote elsewhere.
The SMF’s research drew on over 70 pieces of constituency-level data, offering insights into how social and economic dynamics influence populist support. Interestingly, while white voters are more likely to support Reform, a large white population alone didn’t predict success—the party did better where the white population had declined modestly, not remained static.
A separate report by Labour Together found that governments have consistently spent more on growth in the south-east of England than the rest of the UK. From 2008 to 2024, nearly £100bn more was spent in the south-east on housing, education, and infrastructure, with the gap peaking under Boris Johnson’s government.
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