MPs are set to vote on Labour’s proposed disability benefit cuts without a clear understanding of how many affected individuals will be able to find work, as Britain’s economic watchdog may not release its employment impact forecast until the end of October.
The Department for Work and Pensions’ own impact assessment recently warned that the cuts outlined in the disability benefits green paper would push at least 300,000 people into poverty, including 50,000 children.
Ministers argue that those affected who will face tighter eligibility for Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and cuts to the health element of Universal Credit for new claimants—could avoid poverty by finding work, supported by a £1 billion disability employment package announced alongside the cuts.
However, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was unable to assess how effective these employment support measures would be due to a lack of policy detail and insufficient time. Instead, it plans to include an analysis of the labour market impact in its autumn forecast, which is expected in late October.
This means MPs will likely vote on the cuts before knowing their full consequences, as the government aims to pass legislation in the current parliamentary session, expected to end in July, with the cuts set to take effect in 2026-27.
Labour MP Rachael Maskell, a critic of the cuts, warned: “To force through policy change without a full analysis is not only poor governance, but does not seek to assess whether a policy would be effective.”
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