A sophisticated polling model has projected that Reform UK is on track to secure 114 seats across Britain, delivering a major blow to Labour and significantly weakening its grip on power.
The Nowcast model, which compiles recent UK-wide polling, adjusts for recency and pollster accuracy, and then maps out the likely electoral landscape, predicts that Labour will suffer a devastating loss of 163 seats, leaving them short of a majority.
Labour’s Scottish Collapse and Reform’s Regional Gains
Labour’s losses are particularly stark in Scotland, where the SNP is projected to gain 33 seats, reducing Starmer’s party to just seven seats north of the border. Meanwhile, Reform UK is making inroads across key battlegrounds, with sweeping gains projected in:
- The Southeast (Kent and Essex)
- The Midlands (Stoke and surrounding areas)
- The Northwest (Sunderland and beyond)
Even traditionally Labour-leaning London is not immune, with Reform predicted to take four seats in the capital, despite the city being regarded as a stronghold of left-wing politics.
Labour’s Struggles and Coalition Scenarios
Across the Midlands, South Wales, and the Northeast, Reform UK is polling as a close second behind Labour, and momentum appears to be shifting in the party’s favour.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives are projected to gain 16 seats, while the Liberal Democrats are expected to lose one. The final tally would leave Labour 71 seats short of a majority, meaning Starmer would be forced into coalition talks with the SNP and Liberal Democrats to form a government.
While a Reform-Tory alliance could theoretically challenge Labour, relations between the two right-wing parties remain tense, with both aggressively competing for votes in key areas.
Local Elections Highlight Labour’s Decline
The grim outlook for Labour extends beyond polling data. In 180 council by-elections since the last general election, Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 28 councillors, while the Conservatives have gained 24.
Despite its national polling success, Reform UK has only secured seven council seats—one fewer than the Green Party’s eight—suggesting the party still has ground to cover in local elections.
Calls for a Reform-Tory Alliance Grow
Several high-profile figures have called for a united right-wing alliance to challenge Labour, with national polling indicating that the combined support of Reform UK and the Conservatives is roughly double Labour’s current level.
A Reform UK spokesperson said:
“This research tells us what we all know—Reform UK has all the momentum in British politics. We are surging in the polls and our membership is growing daily. Thanks to this surge in membership, we have more activists than ever before ready to campaign for the May elections.
“We are reconstituting the centre-right of British politics. The Tory brand is broken, and Reform is now the real opposition.”
