Britain faces a severe electricity crisis this winter. Its Norwegian hydro reliance is now a critical vulnerability. Norway’s reservoirs are dangerously low. Consequently, the UK may lose a vital power source.
Therefore, Norway might run out of water. This would prevent maintaining electricity exports to Britain. New laws allow Norway to restrict exports during hydrological shortages. The situation is politically charged with elections imminent.
Furthermore, reservoir levels in southern Norway are alarming. They are well below the 20-year average. They are heading towards 20-year lows. This region connects to UK and German interconnectors. Norway cannot pump water back; it only refills with rain or snowmelt.
Moreover, public opposition to interconnectors is strong in Norway. High and volatile prices anger consumers. The governing coalition even collapsed over this issue. Nearly all political parties now oppose new cables. Some promise to cancel existing deals.
Norway plans to cut capacity with Denmark significantly. This reflects the depth of public sentiment. Denmark also acts as a transit country for power. Therefore, this reduction will have a wider European impact.
Britain and Germany receive about 1400 megawatts from Norway. This equals two large gas power stations. European countries grew dependent on this cheap, clean power. Now, that Norwegian hydro reliance poses a major risk.
If water levels keep dropping, rationing is likely. Norwegian authorities must prepare emergency plans. The last time this nearly happened was in 2003. Scarcity would cause prices to spike dramatically.
Norway could impose export tariffs to protect its citizens. This would correct a current pricing distortion. It is also a matter of basic fairness. Norwegians paid for their hydro infrastructure. They also lack alternative energy sources.
A blackout in Norway’s electrified society would be dangerous. The UK must prepare for the possibility of no imports. In fact, Norway might need to import power from Britain. This would double the strain on the UK grid.
British policymakers must heed this warning. The Norwegian hydro reliance was a strategic risk. Whether by political decision or simple drought, the supply is unreliable. The UK must urgently address its own energy security. Investing in domestic generation is now essential.
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