Reform UK could make major gains across Essex at the next general election. New constituency polling suggests several senior Conservative MPs could lose their seats.
The polling follows Nigel Farage’s victory in the Clacton by-election last week. The Reform UK leader secured 62.82 per cent of the vote. Farage won with a majority of 12,784 votes. He also increased his vote share from the 2024 general election. Meanwhile, national polling shows a close race between Labour and Reform UK. Ipsos surveyed voters between July 30 and August 4.
Labour received 28 per cent support in the poll. Reform UK followed with 25 per cent. However, the three-point gap remains within the margin of error. Electoral Calculus also examined the outlook across Essex. The pollster surveyed more than 5,500 people between June 23 and June 30.
The research examined all 18 Westminster constituencies in Essex. It also considered the potential impact of tactical voting. With tactical voting, Reform UK could win seven Essex seats. Those seats include Clacton, Harlow and Castle Point. The party could also win South Basildon and East Thurrock. Other potential gains include Thurrock and both Southend constituencies.
Without tactical voting, Reform’s gains could reach 11 seats. The party could then take Braintree, Maldon and Rayleigh and Wickford. Several senior Conservative MPs could therefore face defeat. Sir James Cleverly could lose Braintree. Mark Francois could also lose Rayleigh and Wickford. Sir John Whittingdale faces a similar threat in Maldon.
Nevertheless, the poll predicts some Conservative MPs will retain their seats. Kemi Badenoch is expected to hold her constituency. Dame Priti Patel is also predicted to retain Witham. Electoral Calculus founder Martin Baxter warned of a fragmented national result. He said the current figures point towards a hung parliament.
The polling also includes Restore Britain for the first time. The party appears to be taking some support from Reform UK. At the same time, the Conservatives have shown signs of recovering support. Labour has also benefited from Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster. The figures highlight growing political uncertainty across Essex. Reform UK’s rise could reshape several key constituencies. As a result, the next general election could bring major changes to Essex’s political map.
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